Fuel Consumption Future

Fuel consumption, gas prices, energy creation, and green house gases are just a few of our hot topic issues these days. We are all worried about the costs at the pump, our demand for oil, our environmental issues from burning fuel, and also the costs associated with heating our houses during fall and winter. Researchers, engineers, and scientists have been working towards solutions to remedy each and every one of these issues for many years. Technology has come along, but not at the pace necessary to make a large enough impact on our current expenses and production. Billions of dollars have been funneled into projects looking for solutions and yet we do not have a realistic answer to any of our energy problems in our near (5-10 year) future. Is the technology truly not ready or are we just looking for a solution too extravagant for a first generation “cure?”

Coming from an engineering past, new technology is always slated to outperform current levels of requirements. Another goal of new products is to offer more features for comparable cost which effectively lowers the price. Ideals such as these create barriers in our technology revolving around our energy crisis. We want exactly what we have now replaced with the ability to do more. We want a car that can drive 300+ miles on a single “tank,” we want “gas stations” to be ubiquitous the day we purchase the car, we want every amenity known to man to be included in the vehicle, and we also want it to be priced comparably to our current vehicle market. Apply these same theories to other energy issues and that is where the majority of our problems are.

MIT recently released a report stating that they believe US fuel consumption could decrease by 30-50% over the next 25-30 years. They also studied green house gas emissions and focused on the likelihood of new technology being ready to create a large enough impact. Now, that sounds great to me. If we can decrease our consumption by 50%, let’s just say that cuts our oil demand in half for simplicity’s sake. In 30 years, we will “only” be demanding 10 million barrels per day rather than the 20 million we are at right now. The study, performed by one of the most reputable colleges in the country, isn’t all that groundbreaking. If we can’t reach these goals in 30 years, then our country will have more than just an energy crisis to worry about, we will likely be in an economic freefall or depression.

We MUST decrease our fuel consumption by at LEAST 50% in 30 years to have any economic future whatsoever. Chevrolet is currently marketing their electric/gas hybrid vehicle named the Volt. They are planning on retail sales being available in late 2010. Current information projects the vehicle’s gas mileage will be the equivalent of 150 miles per gallon. If Chevrolet has the technology to create such a drastic increase in effective gas mileage, the other car manufacturers will surely follow suit. Projections for the Chevy Volt are about 2 years off, not 5, 10, or 15. If we have the ability to create a fleet of cars in the next 2-10 years with such drastic fuel consumption effects, we BETTER see a 50% decline in fuel consumption in 3 times that length of time.

As I said before, our wants are surpassing our needs. We are not ready to sacrifice much of anything in our current situation for a better future. So what if an electric/gas hybrid doesn’t go as far as the gas only counterpart of today. Don’t we all stop multiple times on long trips anyway? If we have a car that can get us to work on a single charge, that’s all we need. Drive to work then plug it up and then drive back home. Everyone wants the “end all, be all” solution day 1 plus 25% more. We want too much and are willing to sacrifice nothing. We saw that as gas prices shot up at the pump. It took $4 per gallon of gas to impact us enough to begin altering our driving habits. Seriously? Shouldn’t $2 gas have been enough to create change?

Until we can accept that things HAVE to change across our society, projections like MIT’s will continue to be put forth. Sure, things will change 30 years from now, they absolutely must. But, these changes can begin now with some sacrifice. Thinking in terms of 30 years decreases the “scare factor” of where we are at. 30 years is forever in most people’s lives. We lose the urgency when we hear such projections. However, our last major oil and energy crisis occurred in the 70’s, exactly 30 years ago. Shouldn’t we be using more cost effective technology now? You get the idea. We always talk about change when things are bad but when things get better, we lose the sense to fix things. That is until the next time things get bad and on a much larger scale.

We must focus on the solutions now. We must place urgency on fixing things in the next 5-10 years and change our habits and sacrifice to make things happen. Sitting on our projections that things will be better in the future only creates situations like we are in now. If we would have began fixing things 10 years ago, 5 years ago, or even 2, where would we be now? The future is today… the time to sacrifice is now… our future depends on it. We must stop living in an illusion and believe the future will work itself out without any of our help.

Citation: http://web.mit.edu/